Friday, May 13, 2005

Mr. Positivity? Get a load of this!

Harper at Oleanders and Morning Glories is starting to take stock of where things are and to make inferences about where things will be later this year. Taking a look at some recent historical data for teams about a third of the way through the season, Harper reasons:

The Nats are likely to finish between 75-95 wins, probably around 81/82..ok any nimrod could have told you that. Personally, I find it a bit comforting to know they’d have to have a monumentally bad rest of the season to have a bad season, one of those 60+ win ones. They’d have to win less than 40% of their games the rest of the year to do that. A meager .430 winning percentage the rest of the way would make them 55-73 during that stretch and would put them at 73-89, past my personal 90 loss=bad, bad season barrier.

For the record, I think Harper's locked it down pretty well. I predicted 75 wins before the season (well, I'm more into ranges, but I cited "75" as a specific number), and I'm pretty confident we'll get there now, darn tootin'.

Still, one need only think back to last year for The Grand Counterargument. The 2004 Milwaukee Brewers . . . well, let's just let Sports Illustrated explain this one:

Though last-place finishes are nothing new for the Brewers, they didn’t accomplish the feat in any ordinary way last season. After posting a surprising 45–41 record at the All-Star break, the Brewers recorded the worst second-half record ever for a team that was over .500 at the break (22–53).

Ouch. Can you just imagine that? What would result from such a downer of a tank job? One possible outcome: Boz, booze, potato in the tailpipe.

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