Thursday, March 31, 2005

Myopic Nats Inquirer book review: BP2005

We’ve been Zumsteged! All things equal, maybe it's preferable to be Pittsnogled.

---"If you’re into sabermetrics, then . . . you might be a Baseball Prospectus reader."

---"If you know of 'VORP' as something other than a guttural sound and are aware that both Guerrero brothers have been the namesakes of projection systems, then . . . you might be a BP reader."

---"If you have erected your very own SABR altar, complete with icons of a bearded Bill James and a plaid-shirted Rob Neyer, then . . . chances are you're a BP reader."

---"If you believe not only that Bud Selig is a stammering, spasmic fool BUT ALSO THAT Selig is a scum-bucket sadistic cretin who derives physical and emotional pleasure from bilking states and municipalities out of hundreds of millions of dollars that could be used on schools and libraries and water-treatment plants and youth baseball parks but are instead defecated on in the name of Selig's stadia shell-games, then . . . you might-could be a BP reader."
---"If you like your statistics sophisticated, your catching prospects fat and unscouted, and your GMs well-educated, pointy-nosed, probably rejected by scores of women a day, and vaguely reviled by nearly the entire baseball writing establishment, then . . . yeah, you're probably a BP reader."

---"And if you read this and other Nats blogs, then . . . we can safely assume that you are familiar with Baseball Prospectus."*

Simply put, if you're a strong advocate of, or merely an interested observer in, the statistical and analytical worldview of baseball evaluation and appreciation, then Baseball Prospectus is relevant to you.

Come to think of it, maybe "relevant" doesn't begin to describe its cosmic pull. I get the sense that BP's product has declined in recent years; if it hasn't, then other (free) prominent blogs that churn out similar or substantially better content have created the appearance that BP has declined. Nevertheless---and even accounting for my perception that the BP guys and gals have adopted any increasingly cringe-worthy diva-ish posture in recent years, when the publication and some of its individual writers have achieved mass-recognition---I still grab the annual instinctively, as I have since about 1998. Heck, a couple of weeks ago, I strolled into the local Barnes & Noble, blacked out when I hit the "Sports" aisle, came to in the car, and was surprised to see BP2005 sitting in the bag. I'm not going to pay
forty bucks a pop for, among other things, the thoughts of some guy named James Click concerning the grand game, but I'll pay a full Gammons--- or, with a book club card, closer to half-a-Gammons---for the once-a-year hardcopy.

Of course, I'd be remiss not to mention that there's a bit of an issue that the Prospectus groupthink (and I'm sorry if I've mischaracterized here, but it's my perception) has with our nascent Nats. In fact, it's the genesis of this entry, to be honest. Unfortunately, the Nats, rhetorically speaking, are located at the confluence of several BP group interests:

1) a contempt for anything Bud Selig does, smells, tastes, and touches---or, sometimes, anything he doesn't;
2) a philosophical belief and rhetorical bent against publicly-funded stadia;
3) a perhaps disproportionate interest and devotion, as compared to the general baseball-loving population, in the former Montreal Expos; and,
4) a proclivity toward ripping into anything disturbing the aforementioned and other interests, often with biting wit and often with barely-veiled bitterness.

(Oh, and the Montreal organization was monumentally crunked up and the Nats will probably stink, too.)

Consequently, some BP writers have published opinions regarding the Nats that,
as here, skirt "fatwa" status, and some Nats bloggers, as here, have responded in kind. (That's just one example. This blog prides itself in extensively hyper-linking to the brink of obsession, but citing all or even most such examples would take until the Rapture, and to be honest, I've got some amends to make before that happens.)

And so . . . here's our exercise: what does BP2005 have to say about our Nats? Is it good? Is it sad? Is it mad? Is it indifferent? (Not likely in that respect, I can tell you now.) In a bit of a break of protocol,
Jonah Keri, in a recent BP chat, revealed that Derek Zumsteg composed the team write-up; by no coincidence, Zumsteg also wrote the essay/op-ed piece on the Nats that appears near the back of the book.

This review essentially captures what Zumsteg (and, by no great leap in extension, Baseball Prospectus) has to say about the Washington Nationals. There's a significant amount of text to cover, so out of respect for efficiency and our nation's copyright laws, I'm not going to go crazy with excerpting; when relevant, I'll quote nuggets here and there. And one last note: I do not believe that criticism is per se negativity or slamming or what-have-you; we have to have thick skins when we love a baseball team, especially a team of such, uh, unique origins as the Nats. Then again, I'll definitely note cheap-shots, inaccuracies, etc.

And away we go.

Part One, The Team Essay: From Minaya, to Bowden, to Suck

Until the end, the team essay treads no paticularly interesting or unexpected ground. It notes that the Expos follow in a sad tradition of impotently compromised baseball teams and insinuates that the lords of baseball executed shady-to-corrupt transactions that signaled the death blow of the Montreal franchise. Well, "death blow" doesn't begin to describe the image; "kicked in the ass while writhing on the ground in pain" captures it better. The ultimate inequity of all and of many (including a beat-down of both the payroll and the behind-the-scenes organizational staff) was the bizarre departure of general manager Omar Minaya, who was hired by a divisional rival before the end of the season. Sheesh, that is absolutely awful, come to think of it.

(Zumsteg also makes special mention that Minaya ran after the last Montreal home game, presumably just to cite the attendance that night---31,395---which actually, when you think about it, isn't all that impressive considering it was the team's last ever game, though in fairness I'd consider it likely that both ex-Washington teams didn't get half that figure in their last games, plus last year's game wasn't forfeited.)

Zumsteg then moves on to a discussion of new GM Jim Bowden.
In a turn of events similar to the incident referenced by Distinguished Senators' Ryan in a bizarro post concerning agreement with his arch-nemesis, Dayn Perry, Zumsteg's take on the Jose Guillen trade precisely parallels that of Ryan: Guillen is Juan Rivera, except older and jerkier. All in all, Zumsteg doesn't think much of Jim-Bow's skills or gravitas: "Bowden is here to be fired." While in recent weeks, Bowden has been assured he'll be around all season, I can't say I disagree with the assessment. (Quick note: In the player comments section, Zumsteg joins an exclusive club: guys who have mangled the details of the Guillen trade. Zumsteg comments that Maicer Izturis joined the Dodgers, not the Angels. Right city---heh---wrong league.)

Truthfully, pages 252-54 could have provided a stirring tribute to the Montreal Expos. Or a sad, nostalgic tribute. Or a bitter, strident tribute. Take your pick. Instead, the team essay quick-hits that the Expos got screwed over, then argues that Minaya was impolite and Jim Bowden is less than erudite. Film at eleven, folks.

But there's nothing really objectionable, until . . . now:

At this rate, by the time the season is over the Nationals may have demonstrated how quickly and thoroughly interest in baseball can be snuffed out. The hugely expensive stadium plan could start to tumble, taken down by countless angry citizen actions like Gulliver being pulled down by the Lilliputians. At that point, having kept the franchise for themselves if they don't sell soon. Bob
DuPuy might be leading the conga line to the next city.
Basil's Rules of Rhetoric, No. 38: "If you've got nothing substantive, resort to neat imagery."

Here, I'll try it, too: "Zumsteg's doomsday scenario is unlikely, as unlikely any high school kid actually reading Ethan Frome."

Simply put, the Seligians could screw absolutely everything up, Tony Williams could get caught naked with a donkey (now how's that for imagery?!), or any other number of things could happen and the stadium deal won't die at this point and, majority opinion against public financing among District residents or not, support for the Nats won't come close to near to close to dying. Twenty-one thousand season tickets say so.

Part Two, Player Comments: I Sense a Theme!!!

Well, that last comment was a bit negative, and I don't want to establish a pervasive tone of a hurt and wounded Nats fan on attack; as I said above, that's not my intent in this post. So, before I move on to some really unbelievable stuff, let me pause and give Zumsteg and BP some well-deserved credit.

As is the BP hallmark, Zumsteg knows how to look at a stats line and made some top flight inferences and evaluations. For example, here's his take on
the Orleans Whiz:

This is a dangerous player. His batting average is high enough so that he looks like a good enough hitter. He'll steal enough bases so that you'll want him for that. His range and speed are good enough that sometimes he'll come in a long way to catch a shallow fly and look like a solid defender. Managers bite on these kind of players, and suddenly they're at the top of the lineup every day.
. . .
Couldn't agree more, Derek Z. (Zumsteg couldn't have foreseen that Chavez would get dumped a few days ago, but credit must go to Frank Robinson and Bowden for doing so; Zumsteg treated Chavez's existence in the lineup as a foregone conclusion, it seems.)

In addition, Zumsteg provides a beautifully-written tribute to the wonder that it is to watch ¡LIVAN! pitch.

I would not publish an honest, Nats-centric appraisal of the "Comments" section, though, if I did not note that Zumsteg really breaks new ground thematically. In fact, I daresay he's inspired a new word to the English language---to Zumsteg:

"Zumsteg"; verb. Defined: to exhibit a tendency to drag out a theme to the point of tedium. Closely-related: "Saget" (to display an unhealthy fondness for broadcasting footage of men getting cranked in the schwang by sports- and entertainment-related instrumentalities, devices, and projectiles).
What is Zumsteg's theme? ". . . in this organization." For instance, "that wouldn't be so bad, except in this organization . . .", or "that would be good news, except in this organization . . ." How often does this theme arise? Well, it pops up in the comments on:

---Jamey Carroll,
---Endy Chavez,
---Ryan Church,
---Brendan Harris,
---Maicer Izturis,
---Nick Johnson,
---Josh Labandeira,
---Alejandro Machado (in other words, the entirety of page 257),
---Henry Mateo,
---Val Pascucci (same joke as Machado, actually: "this is good; this is bad; this is worse; this is the Expos/Nationals"),
---Juan Rivera (most memorable one-liner: "Even something modestly cool like Juan Rivera is too good for this team, . . ."), and
---Brandon Watson.

And that merely covers the position players.

So, yeah, we get the point.

Yet, the above is rather a trifling observation compared to what I'll call Big Whopper Number One, which is the Brad Wilkerson comment, in relevant part:

Wilkerson went on the All-Star tour in Japan as an Expo, even as MLB was moving the team. He wore the Expo colors in the Tokyo Dome, a week before the team's new uniforms were held out and waved like capes as if the presenters were matadors. Above their nervous smiles, eyes darted around the room, scanning the crowd for the angry, wounded Expos fan who might charge the next flash of fabric.
I've spent a significant amount of time over the past week trying to figure out what Zumsteg is stabbing at here, and at this point I'm just going to throw my hands up in the air. (But I'm not going to wave 'em like I just don't cay-yah; see page 265).

It has to be either artistic license or an intense delusion. As a factual assertion, it fails in one of those Rubix-cube kind of ways; no matter how you arrange things, it's wrong:

---The MLB-in-Japan tour
lasted from Nov. 5-13.

---The uniform unveiling, originally scheduled for mid-December,
was postponed, a victim of CroppWatch '04: A City Held Hostage!.

---Zumsteg might be referring to
the LOGO unveiling, which occurred about a week or two after the tour in Japan. And, although the ceremony was rather celebratory in nature (the unfurling of the logo, complete with a broad Mayor Baseball smile, was a video cut on Comcast SportsNet bumpers for several months), there were some nervous smiles there---and there was an angry, wounded individual. But the consternation sure as hell wasn't Expo-related. Instead, the ceremony was briefly interrupted by a DC Statehood Green Party protester, who crashed the party and deplored taxpayer money going toward a ballpark. But scan his organization's platform, Derek; I don't see anything about vindicating the Montreal Expos.

---Linda Cropp having been duly placated---or having been caught with Tony Williams's donkey---
the uniforms were finally unveiled in early February. But, first, I don't think there were any p.o.'ed Expo fans there either and, second, the event likely occurred after BP's press time. At any rate, tell me: is this a nervous smile? Smile, Cristian!

So, in conclusion, I have no idea what Derek Zumsteg is getting at in the Wilkerson comment. But I do know this: NO MONTREAL PROTESTERS HAVE EVER THREATENED ANY NATS' FUNCTION, AND NOT TO BE CALLOUS ABOUT IT, VERY FEW PEOPLE CARE ABOUT THE EXPOS ENOUGH EVEN TO CONTEMPLATE SOMETHING LIKE THAT. (And note: I feel bad for Montreal fans, too.)

Here's as close as we're gonna get:
a couple of hardcore fans lamenting their loss at the spring training site---quietly.

Part Two-Point-Five, the Baltimore Essay: Big Whopper Number Two

I don't know who wrote the Baltimore essay (pages 287-89), but it contains an incredible passage:

MLB partially placated [Peter Angelos] by essentially forcing the future owners of the Washington club to fork over all of their television revenue to Angelos, which was what Angelos considered reasonable for his impending (and likely) loss of most of the Virginia market. That is a prime financial plum, . . .
Sheesh, that's no plum; that's Lucy not only pulling the football away from Charlie Brown but also handing him over to a leather-clad, knife-wielding gang of asbestos-litigating dwarves for ritual sacrifice.

All of the television revenue? Are you kidding me? Who wrote this one,
Will Carroll?

Suffice it to say,
although Angelos is getting the better end of the apparent deal, he's not going to consume the entire Vermonster.

Part Three, The Essay: The Inquirer is Losing Steam

Really, I am. Zumsteg wrote a five-page essay on the Nats in the back of the book. It contains a quick history-timeline of the Expos, a lengthier discussion of the relocation process, a look at the stadium deal, and a really long discourse on the general subject of "DC baseball and race." I must be burning out here, because I can't find anything particularly stimulating (good) or objectionable (bad).

A few days ago,
reader Randolph summarized the essay in the Comments section of this post-n-thread. Having read the essay now, it's a good summary and a sharp analysis. Good stuff, Randolph.

I would like to add one general observation, though: I am not going to throw this deftly enough, so I apologize in advance for the tone, but why should anyone really care what a Baseball Prospectus writer
who follows the Mariners mainly has to say about the issue? I'm not saying that Prospectus shouldn't comment on such hot-button issues in the baseball world, necessarily; I'm just wondering why the BP people think anyone is supposed to care.

More specifically, I'm wondering why a reader should care about an op-ed oriented piece on the issue that appears in BP. I can see investigative journalism-deep background (though BP should stay away from that sort of thing, if you ask me), and I can see a numbers-cruncing economic analysis. But what makes the opinions of a BP contributor likely far-removed from the subject interesting or worth paying for? (Heaven forbid, maybe I can even see Dayn Perry writing the thing; according to the essay, he's written on the subject in Washington Monthly.)

I don't know if I'm making sense, but what I'm trying to say is that there's a lot of interesting information in these 500+ pages. I'm just wondering why one of the few back-of-the-book, general interest essays is essentially a second team comments essay---and a glorified blog-entry with some more-traveled angles, at that.

At any rate . . . that's it, guys. Now that we're at the end and this caveat can be buried easily, let me state that the book's take on the Nats wasn't that "bad"---i.e., overtly negative, strident, callous, jerkass-y, etc. And it's not like the Washington essay and comments were the only critical ones; why, there's a reliable checklist that tracks year-to-year for which teams will get a boot up the rear. In addition, while I haven't check out the other annuals---if there are any others, besides that of the Hardball Times---this is of course the one annual you'd want to buy if you're in to "that kind of thing" (sabermetrics, fantasy-ball, and so forth). It's got some embarrassing typos and sloppy sentence constructions, but then, don't we all? (We all don't have editors and rather large publishers, though, of course.)

So . . . get BP2005---and, if you're a Nats' fan, get a thick skin, too.

* The preceding is meant in good humor; I'm not erecting strawmen or anything like that, just to be clear.

Thanks! Between you and Barnes and Nobles' comfy couches, I've just saved $15!

Two completely trivial points...

I'm assuming the Dodgers error was an error by the editor. No doubt they had Los Angeles written, and the editor changed that to Dodgers. Just a hunch there.

And on Ethan Frome. I read it! And more kids would read it if you told them that the sledding chapter at the end is an extended metaphor for sex. It really adds some life to that novel!
Well done, sir. That one bit you quoted ("At this rate, by the time the season is over . . .") is one of the most infuriating examples of ignorant BP groupthink I've ever seen.
I'm assuming the Dodgers error was an error by the editor.

Possible. But it's my purpose in life to bring up Boz's screw-up whenever remotely applicable.

Ryan, I do like that one, but the Wilkerson comment digression rates high on the chutzpidity meter, if you ask me.
Great post.

Two other related comments:

1. Chris Kahrl's latest piece on DC and the Nats bizarrely seems to still indicate that DC isn't a major-league market. It's amazingly uninformed: Kahrl goes on some race tangent and considers it an indictment that many Nats season ticket holders come from the suburbs. Well, hello, so do most fans from all major league teams -- including those O's.

2. In Sheehan's NL East preview, he pegs the Nats for 66 wins without doing a bit of analysis for us to understand where he's coming from. That's been a huge gripe from me: they scoff at the Nats team ability (I think unreasonably), and they don't offer any evidence to back it up. Just snarky comments -- like the "mediots" of old. They're really getting lazy, and I'm certainly not paying 40 bucks for an annual subscription.

For shame.
I don't think I saw that Kahrl article, Josh; in the chat, I saw Kahrl say that the interlocking-DC cap is ugly, an opinion I simply can't fathom and that I must chalk up to irrational animosity. I mean, EVERYBODY likes that cap---it's cool.
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Sometimes it happens that for the same ailment different treatments are offered by different doctors. This confuses the patients to a great deal. Which treatment to go for, which doctor to follow etc, etc. Under these circumstances people can refer to the patient info sites where they can get all the information regarding the disease, its treatments, prices etc.
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