Friday, February 04, 2005

Stone cold, lead-pipe locks

Well, maybe Nationals MLB News doesn't provide that extensive a warranty, but here's an early entry in the inevitable 2005 Nats bloggers' "predict the standings" contest

Just the National League teams (so far?). It looks like Marc employs some variation of the general Pythagorean, runs scored versus runs allowed methodology.

The Nats are predicted last in the NL East, which is neither insulting nor surprising, of course. Marc has the Marlins finishing first, which he acknowledges is somewhat unexpected. I suppose it is as reasonable a pick as any, but---to repeat the tired cliche---I can't pick against the Braves, at this point, until they actually lose the division (1994 notwithstanding, of course). The Mets are picked fourth, which seems possible, given this is the stage in the Mets' "success cycle" when they spend a bunch of money and then tank big-time.

As for the rest of the NL, well, the big story would be the Astros' utter collapse in the NL Central, below even the three stooges (Cincy, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee). Actually, if I were predict a suprise in the NL, I might take a flier on the Brewers; if things break right, I think they could remain in the wild card until mid-September, for whatever that's worth. He's also still got the D-Bucks last in the NL West, which I'll accept on principle---the "Why in hell did you just throw $36 million at Russ Ortiz?" principle.

And one last note: Marc believes (or maybe just according to his formula) that the Sosa-to-Baltimore trade will directly alter the NL Central race; he had the Cubs beating the Cards before the trade, but not now. (The Cubs would get the wild card, however.)

Interesting stuff. And it's good to have a Canadian correspondent.

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